12/28/2023 0 Comments Shut in plot 2016![]() Even a straightforward cover-up of a single event, requiring no more complex machinations than everyone keeping their mouth shut, is likely to be blown if more than 650 people are accomplices.ĭr Grimes said: 'Not everyone who believes in a conspiracy is unreasonable or unthinking. A century-long deception should ideally include fewer than 125 collaborators. To keep a scheme operating undetected for more than a decade, fewer than 1000 people can be involved. For a plot to last five years, the maximum was 2521 people. He then looked at the maximum number of people who could take part in an intrigue in order to maintain it. In simple terms, any one of the four conspiracies would have been exposed long before now. Using the equation, Dr Grimes calculated that hoax moon landings would have been revealed in 3 years 8 months, a climate change fraud in 3 years 9 months, a vaccination conspiracy in 3 years 2 months, and a suppressed Cancer cure in 3 years 3 months. ![]() 736,000 people if, as would be more likely, pharmaceutical companies were included) that the cure for Cancer is being suppressed by the world’s leading pharmaceutical firms (714,000 people). These include: the theory that the US moon landings were a hoax (411,000 people) that Climate Change is a fraud (405,000 people) that unsafe vaccinations are being covered up (22,000 people assuming that only the World Health Organisation and the US Centers for Disease Control are conspirators and that others involved in advocating, producing, distributing and using vaccines are dupes. In each case, the number of conspirators and the time before the conspiracy was revealed were over-estimated to ensure that the odds of a leak happening were a 'best case scenario' for the conspirators – around a four in one million chance of deliberate or accidental exposure.ĭr Grimes then looked at four alleged plots, estimating the maximum number of people required to be in on the conspiracy, in order to see how viable these conspiracies could be. Three genuine conspiracies were used to provide this – including the NSA Prism project revealed by Edward Snowden. However, the equation required a realistic estimation of the chances of any one individual revealing a conspiracy. ![]() This factors in the number of conspirators, the length of time, and even the effects of conspirators dying, whether of old age or more nefarious means, for those conspiracies that do not require active maintenance. To do that, I looked at the vital requirement for a viable conspiracy – secrecy.'ĭr Grimes initially created an equation to express the probability of a conspiracy being either deliberately uncovered by a whistle-blower or inadvertently revealed by a bungler. 'It is common to dismiss conspiracy theories and their proponents out of hand but I wanted to take the opposite approach, to see how these conspiracies might be possible. However, not every belief in a conspiracy is necessarily wrong – for example, the Snowden revelations confirmed some theories about the activities of the US National Security Agency. While believing the moon landings were faked may not be harmful, believing misinformation about vaccines can be fatal. He explained: 'A number of conspiracy theories revolve around science. Those messages prompted him to look at whether large-scale collusions were actually tenable. His profile means that he receives many communications from people who believe in science-related conspiracies. Dr Grimes, a physicist working in cancer research, is also a science writer and broadcaster.
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